Dow Jones tested the low yet again at the level of 8100 before fire up to 8400.

DJ make the most gain among the 3 indexes. One thing to take note is that the trading volume is still pretty low. The consolation is that the support is holding very strong. If it break through 8500 tomorrow, then the bull will most likely have a short term run.

Nasdaq hit 1430 which was the low on 13/11/08 and shoot up to 1480.

Nasdaq make a double bottom in the perspective of 5 days chart. It just bounce off at 1430 level. If it break through 1500, then the bull will have a short term rally.

S&P500 also tested the low of 830 before rally up to 860.

S&P500 rally almost 30 points during the last hour of the trading period. As long as it do not break down 850 again, then most likely it will go back up to 950.

In conclusion, the market will most likely trading in a tight range. If the market not going up for the next few days then a downside might be a possible if it break through the low. So trade wisely and cautiously. Short term unsure… Long Term Positive…

The market has been churning people stomach up and down. The market is not falling off the cliff for the last 6 weeks. Take a look at the S&P500 chart. The S&P500 has been testing the low 850  for 6 times in the last 6 weeks (each candle represent 1 week). It has been holding very strong at 850 despite all the gloom and doom news.

So the million dollar question is will S&P 500 break through the low of 850 and jump down the cliff?

From the weekly chart, I seriously do not think that it will break through the low of 850. This is because of the following points …

- MACD Histogram bar is getting smaller as each week passes. This mean that the impact of the downside is not that huge.
- MACD Lines does not seem too good but it seem like the black line is going to cross the red line. This mean that a turning point might be coming.
- RSI Reversal is flat at the 25 mark now. This mean that there is a high chance that it will start to rise which indicate a bull is coming.
- If you take a good look at the chart, you might even notice that a continuous candlestick pattern might be forming.

That said from the above points, the market might still give us a huge surprise and tank us for a few more time.

In Conclusion …

I do not care about where the market will go in the short term. I also cant really predict where the market will go. So I do have a safety level for my short term trade but not my long term investment. If you have read my previous article about the future of the Dow, which i talk about the movement of the Dow that i think will range, you will have some idea where i think the S&P500 will go in the long term.

Treat your investment as a business but treat your trading as a casino or a probability game.